Shaver is Dems' best bet against Latta

As we mulled whom to endorse in the Democratic primary for the 5th Congressional District, we kept coming back to an anecdote Fostoria City Council President Brian Shaver told us last month. Shaver, one of four Democrats in the race, said that he counted 84 signs in support of President Donald Trump in February as he drove to the Lorain County Board of Elections to file his petitions. He said he counted only four such signs when he followed the same route through the district on his way to meet with us for an endorsement interview last month. There was both hope and danger for Democrats in Shaver's story. Shaver leaned heavily into hope, taking the dwindling number of pro-Trump signs as, well, a sign that support for the Republican president was dropping in the district. He argued dissatisfaction with Trump could work against U.S. Rep. Bob Latta, the Bowling Green Republican he hopes to challenge in the fall. The danger, of course, is that hope could lead Democrats to overestimate their chances in what is still a solidly red district. (In addition to Lorain County, the district also includes the counties of Crawford, Hancock, Huron, Sandusky, Seneca and Wyandot as well as portions of Richland County and Wood County.) It is true that the district is less red than it once was, thanks to Republican mapmakers shifting certain GOP strongholds into the neighboring 9th Congressional District to increase their chances of ousting U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the Toledo Democrat whose district includes the Erie County side of Vermilion. Under the old map, Latta's district was rated R +28, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Inside Elections. The new district, approved last year, is R +21. Even if some Republican voters have soured on Trump thanks to things like high gasoline prices and the war with Iran, Democrats still face a steep climb. But there's always a chance, especially in a midterm election when the party that doesn't control the White House historically does well. (Another advantage that Democrats could have is that a Libertarian, Michael Veloff, also is in the race, albeit as a write-in candidate in his party's primary. He could pull votes away from Latta, who is unopposed in the GOP primary, in November.) To have any chance of winning in the conservative-leaning district, Democrats need someone who can appeal to independents and moderate Republicans. That's where the 48-year-old Shaver, an educator by trade, comes in. Of the four Democrats, he came across as the most moderate and pragmatic candidate. Indeed, he told us that several of his fellow Council members, who are elected on a nonpartisan basis, didn't even know he was a Democrat until he filed to run for Congress. (In addition to having served on Council since 2017, Shaver has held leadership roles in education unions.) We suspect that's because Shaver knows how to talk to people outside the Democratic base. Nevertheless, Shaver's political positions are well inside the Democratic mainstream. For example, he recognized the dangers of tariffs, particularly to farmers. He said he favored "nuanced diplomacy" over the belligerent foreign policy that Trump has pursued. He was critical of the heavy-handed tactics that have characterized Trump's mass deportation campaign. Also in the primary race are 31-year-old restaurateur Daniel Burket; 49-year-old Lorain Schools teacher and former Amherst City Councilman Martin Heberling III; and 64-year-old retired sheet metal worker Scott Tabor. We'll take Tabor first because we believe he would struggle the most in the general election. He told us he was running to protect the country from Trump. Although Tabor hit a lot of the right notes for a Democrat, his campaign would be hampered by his criminal record, which he told us included a long-ago stint in prison on drug trafficking charges. Heberling is probably the most familiar name to Lorain County voters, in part because of his time on Council in Amherst and as treasurer of the Lorain County AFL-CIO. Heberling is passionate about health-care reform because of what his family went through when his son was diagnosed with a condition that required him to get a heart transplant. Our biggest concern with Heberling is that he hasn't performed well in elections outside of Amherst. He ran for Congress in 2022 and for county commissioner in 2024, but he didn't make it out of the primary in either campaign. Burket struck us as a strong campaigner and he demonstrated a strong grasp of politics and federal policy, but he's the most progressive candidate in the primary. There are congressional districts across the country where Burket's more left-leaning politics wouldn't be an issue, but when it comes to winning in the general election, the 5th District isn't one of them. To have a chance of winning here, Democrats need a moderate like Shaver.