Gerrymandering gets underway

Ohio Republicans have invited the public to engage in an exercise in futility. On Tuesday, Ohio House Speaker Matt Huffman, R-Lima, and Senate President Rob McColley, R-Napoleon, issued a news release asking the public to submit proposed congressional districts for the state's upcoming redistricting process. Nice as that sounds, no one should be under any illusion that Ohio's Republican overlords care what members of the public think about redistricting. Unless, of course, they happen to be members of the public who favor GOP gerrymandering. Sure, Huffman, McColley and their fellow Republicans, who hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, might thumb through the public's plans, but the reality is that they'll almost certainly ignore them. They sure didn't listen to public demands for fair state legislative and congressional district maps during the bitter rounds of redistricting that followed the 2020 census. Despite repeated rulings from a bipartisan majority of the Ohio Supreme Court that the district maps were unconstitutional, the predictable result was that Republicans came away with supermajorities in the state legislature and the congressional delegation. In Congress, Republicans hold 10 of Ohio's 15 House seats. Two Democrats, Marcy Kaptur of Toledo and Emilia Sykes of Akron, narrowly won in 2024. Even without gerrymandering they have reason to worry about their political futures in a state President Donald Trump carried by 11 percentage points. Ohio's political divide breaks down to roughly 45 percent Democrats and 55 percent Republicans. Even without Trump demanding that Republican-controlled states gerrymander to improve the GOP's chances of holding the House in next year's midterms, Ohio Republicans were going to finagle the district maps to improve their candidates' chances. Trump wants 100 more GOP-held seats when the next Congress convenes in 2027, and Republicans across the country are scrambling to accommodate him. In Texas, where Trump said he was "entitled" to five more Republican House seats, the legislature moved quickly. Democratic lawmakers briefly fled the Lone Star State to stall the process, but eventually they returned and the GOP majority goosed the maps in their favor. Republicans already held 25 of the state's 38 House seats. They're expected to pick up another five under the new maps. Other Republican states, including Missouri, Indiana and Florida, are either actively moving to redraw their maps or considering it. Meanwhile, Democrats are gearing up to do some mid-decade redistricting of their own. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed through the state legislature a ballot measure that, if voters approve it in November, would temporarily sideline the state's independent redistricting commission. That would allow Democrats to redraw California's congressional maps. Democrats hold 43 of the state's 52 congressional seats. Democrats could pick up five more seats if the plan goes through. Newsom only took that step after Texas launched its redistricting effort. Other blue states, including Illinois, Maryland and New York, are also considering redrawing their maps to improve Democratic candidates' chances. Republicans, as you might imagine, are not keen on Democrats doing what Republicans are doing. We have long opposed gerrymandering, no matter which party is doing it. The practice allows politicians to pick their voters rather than the other way around. Much as it pains us to admit, at this point we don't see how Democrats have any other choice but to counter GOP gerrymandering with their own. In the escalating gerrymandering war, Ohio is a rarity in that it must redraw its congressional maps this year because of an anti-gerrymandering amendment to the state Constitution that voters overwhelmingly approved in 2018. The amendment requires minority party support for congressional maps to remain in effect for a full 10 years, which didn't happen in the last round of congressional redistricting. The state legislature has until Sept. 31 to draw maps that win the support of three-fifths of each chamber, including at least half of Democrats. If that fails, the GOP-dominated Ohio Redistricting Commission would have until Oct. 31 to pass district maps, but for them to be enacted they would need the support of the two Democratic members. If the commission can't accomplish that feat, the legislature would then have until Nov. 30 to enact maps with a simple majority in each chamber. A Senate webpage noted that such maps "must still comply with anti-gerrymandering provisions of the Ohio Constitution." Don't count on it. Ohio Republicans have already proved they're willing to ignore those provisions. Utah is another outlier because a state judge ordered the state to redraw its congressional districts. Republicans hold all four of Utah's House seats, but the court-ordered redistricting might lead to Democrats winning one seat — if it survives GOP appeals. How far will Ohio Republicans go to juice their congressional election prospects next year? Quite far, we imagine. Over the summer, U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Westlake, suggested that Republicans should win in 12 of the 15 congressional districts. Whether or not the new congressional maps are that skewed, they will still be drawn to give more Republicans more favorable political terrain. The likely result will be that the outcome of most, if not all, of Ohio's congressional races will be a foregone conclusion before a single vote is cast. Republicans will almost certainly win more seats, but the people will lose.