Ohio GOP gears up for another gerrymander

If you thought Ohio's congressional districts were gerrymandered now, just wait until Republicans get through with redistricting for the 2026 election. In a closely divided U.S. House of Representatives, a few races could make all the difference, and Republicans are already talking about taking advantage of redistricting to improve their chances of holding the chamber next year. Right now, the 435-member House has 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies, all of which were held by Democrats who died in office. If history is any guide, Republicans have good reason to worry they might not be in the majority following next year's elections. That's because the president's party tends to fare poorly in midterm elections. For example, in the 2018 midterm election, Democrats picked up 41 seats, allowing them to serve as a check on the excesses of Republican President Donald Trump during his first term. Before that election, Republicans had held the majority since 2011. Although Republicans picked up 14 seats in 2020, when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump in the presidential election, Democrats held the majority only until after the 2022 midterms. In that year, Republicans won the majority by four seats, a narrow victory. Trump recognizes this historical trend, which is why he ordered compliant Republicans in Texas to undertake a rare mid-decade redrawing of that state's districts. The 38-member Texas congressional delegation consists of 25 Republicans, 12 Democrats and one vacancy. "Texas will be the biggest one," Trump said when asked this week about drawing more GOP-friendly districts around the country, The Associated Press reported. "And that'll be five," he continued, apparently anticipating a pickup of that many additional Republican-held seats. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has called a special legislative session to redraw the districts with an eye toward doing exactly that. Which brings us back to the Buckeye State, which has to redistrict this year because Democrats didn't support the district map put in place following the 2020 census. Republicans ignored bipartisan decisions from the Ohio Supreme Court declaring the map an unconstitutional gerrymander that overly favored GOP candidates. Under an anti-gerrymandering amendment to the Ohio Constitution that voters approved in 2018, the map has to be redrawn again in four years if there isn't enough minority-party support. Ohio has 15 House seats, 10 of which are held by Republicans, which works out to two-thirds of the seats. That's a far cry from the state's political breakdown of roughly 45 percent Democrats and 55 percent Republicans. In 2024, Trump carried Ohio with about 55 percent of the vote, while the Democratic nominee, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, received almost 44 percent of the vote. Thanks to a separate process for drawing state legislative districts — also ruled unconstitutional by a bipartisan majority of the Ohio Supreme Court — Republicans enjoy supermajorities in the Ohio House and Ohio Senate, which get first crack at drawing the new maps. Depending on whether there's any Democratic buy-in for whatever map the legislature draws, it could bounce between legislators and the Ohio Redistricting Commission, where Republicans enjoy a 5-2 majority. Senate Minority Leader Nicki Antonio, D-Lakewood, told The Cincinnati Enquirer that she would support keeping the existing map in place because it "would give some representation and some voice in Congress to the people who are looking for a Democratic representative." True, but that's almost certainly not how things will work out. U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Westlake, told Punchbowl News that he thought the new map would likely favor Republicans in 12 out of the 15 districts, a margin that he said "reflects the state." Ohio isn't so red that Republicans should hold 80 percent of its congressional seats, Moreno's preferred outcome. One of the likeliest GOP targets will be U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo, who represents part of Vermilion. Her district leans red, and she barely won reelection in 2024 with 48.3 percent of the vote. Her Republican opponent, then-state Rep. Derek Merrin, took 47.6 percent of the vote. A Libertarian in the race took 4.1 percent. To improve their chances of defeating Kaptur, Republicans would likely have to remove blue-leaning parts of her district while incorporating red-leaning parts of U.S. Rep. Bob Latta's neighboring district. Latta, R-Bowling Green, represents Lorain County. Latta can afford to lose some of his Republican base. He crushed Democrat Keith Mundy in 2024, taking 67.5 percent of the vote compared to Mundy's 37.5 percent. Mundy was a weak candidate who didn't live in the district, but he still managed to outperform Latta's 2022 Democratic challenger, Craig Swartz, who garnered 33.1 percent of the vote. Another likely GOP target is U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes, D-Akron, while U.S. Rep. Greg Landsman, D-Mt. Washington, has reason to worry as well. Whatever gerrymandering Republicans decide to undertake in Ohio, there is little that Democrats can do to stop them. As a spokesperson for Ohio House Speaker Matt Huffman, R-Lima, recently did, Republicans will insist that they aren't caving to external pressure to help the GOP hold Congress. "The speaker is focused on delivering a durable outcome for Ohio, not meeting external expectations," the spokesperson told The Enquirer. No one needs to tell Huffman or other Ohio Republicans to boost the GOP's political fortunes. They've been doing it for years, and they're not about to stop now.