Nawrocki's win turns Poland toward nationalism and casts doubt on Tusk's centrist government (UPDATED)

WARSAW, Poland — Conservative Karol Nawrocki's victory in Poland's weekend presidential runoff has set the country on a more nationalist course — and cast doubt on the viability of the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the defeat of his liberal ally. Nawrocki, who was supported by U.S. President Donald Trump, won 50.89% of votes in a very tight race against Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 49.11%, according to the final results of Sunday's runoff published Monday morning. By evening, Tusk said he would ask parliament to hold a vote of confidence in his coalition government, a fragile multiparty alliance that includes left-wingers, centrists and agrarian conservatives. Tusk's government exists separately from the presidency, but the president holds power to veto laws, and Nawrocki's win will make it extremely difficult for Tusk to press his pro-European agenda. The race revealed deep divisions in the country along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union. The result leaves Tusk politically wounded, and there are questions about whether his coalition can survive to the end of its term in late 2027. There were already calls on Monday from political opponents for him to step down. Tusk said in a video posted to social media that there's a lot of work for the government to do, and its first test would be the vote of confidence held in "the near future." If Tusk survives the confidence vote, it would show he still has a mandate to govern. He also said he was prepared to work with Nawrocki if the willingness is there. "I want everyone to see — including our opponents, at home and abroad — that we are ready for this situation, that we understand the gravity of the moment, and that we do not intend to back down, not even a step," he said. Nawrocki thanks his voters In his first public comments since his win was announced, Nawrocki thanked those who voted for him and said he would work for the causes that matter to them. "We want to live in a safe country with a strong economy, one that cares for the most vulnerable. A country that matters in international, European, and transatlantic relations. A country that cherishes its centuries-old traditions and respects its history," he wrote on social media. Nawrocki's supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Those who oppose secular trends, including LGBTQ+ visibility, have embraced him, viewing him as a reflection of the values they grew up with. Most day-to-day power in the Polish political system rests with a prime minister chosen by the parliament. However, the president's role isn't merely ceremonial. The office also holds the power to influence foreign policy. Nawrocki will succeed Andrzej Duda, a conservative whose second and final term ends on Aug. 6. Trzaskowski conceded defeat and congratulated Nawrocki. "I fought for us to build a strong, safe, honest, and empathetic Poland together," he wrote on social media. "I'm sorry I wasn't able to convince the majority of citizens of my vision for Poland." Congratulations from Trump, Zelenskyy, Orbán Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was among the leaders offering congratulations to Nawrocki, an acknowledgment of Poland's key role as a neighbor, ally and hub for Western weapons sent to Kyiv. He called Poland "a pillar of regional and European security." Trump exulted Nawrocki's victory. "Congratulations Poland, you picked a WINNER!" he said on his social media platform Truth Social. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also congratulated Nawrocki, saying in a statement, "The Polish people have spoken and support a stronger military and securing their borders. Poland is a model Ally and a key contributor to strengthening the NATO Alliance and its sovereign integrity against today's challenges and those ahead." Nawrocki supports Ukraine in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion, but he's more critical of Zelenskyy than Polish leaders to date, and he opposes NATO membership for Kyiv. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who shares Nawrocki's national conservative worldview, hailed Nawrocki's "fantastic victory." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offered measured congratulations: "We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home." A former boxer, historian and political novice Nawrocki, a 42-year-old amateur boxer and historian, was tapped by the Law and Justice party as part of its push for a fresh start. The party governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, when it lost power to Tusk's centrist coalition. Some political observers predicted it would never make a comeback, and Nawrocki was chosen as a new face who would not be burned by the scandals of the party's rule. The election outcome vindicated party leader Jarosław Kaczyński's strategy, but on Monday many were also blaming the increasingly unpopular Tusk and Trzaskowski. Nawrocki has most recently been the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives. He led efforts to topple monuments to the Soviet Red Army in Poland, and Russia responded by putting him on a wanted list, according to Polish media reports. Nawrocki's candidacy was clouded by allegations of past connections to criminal figures and his participation in a violent street brawl. He denies the criminal links but was unapologetic about the street fight, saying he had taken part in various "noble" fights in his life. The revelations did not seem to hurt his support among right-wing voters, many of whom see the allegations as politically motivated. The Trump factor Trump had made it clear he wanted Nawrocki as Poland's president. He welcomed Nawrocki to the White House a month ago. And last week, the conservative group CPAC held its first meeting in Poland to give Nawrocki a boost. Kristi Noem, the U.S. Homeland Security Secretary and a prominent Trump ally, praised Nawrocki and urged Poles to vote for him. The United States has about 10,000 troops stationed in Poland, and Noem suggested that military ties could deepen with Nawrocki as president. A common refrain from Nawrocki's supporters is that he will restore "normality," as they believe Trump has done. U.S. flags often appeared at Nawrocki's rallies, and his supporters believed that he offered a better chance for good ties with the Trump administration. Nawrocki has also echoed some of Trump's language on Ukraine. He promises to continue Poland's support for Ukraine, but has been critical of Zelenskyy, accusing him of taking advantage of allies. He has accused Ukrainian refugees of taking advantage of Polish generosity, vowing to prioritize Poles for social services such as health care and schooling.