Unexpected election outcomes

The conventional wisdom heading into Tuesday's primary election was that requests for new money would be a hard sell to voters. The results, however, told a slightly different story. A majority, albeit sometimes slim, of Lorain County voters appeared to recognize that the tax increases they were asked to pass were necessary and voted accordingly. Public officials seeking tax increases had legitimate reasons to worry. Many homeowners had seen their property values rise because of a countywide reevaluation completed by Lorain County Auditor Craig Snodgrass' office last year. For many, the increase in values led to increased property taxes. Coupled with larger worries about the economy, the public officials' concern was that voters would shy away from any issue that added to their tax burden. Those fears appeared play out with respect to a few issues. Take Elyria Schools, which had asked voters to approve a 4.9-mill levy that would have generated nearly $6.4 million annually for district operations. Despite being the first new operating money Elyria Schools had asked for in 15 years, the levy failed, with 2,406 votes, or 53 percent, against and 2,137 votes, or 47 percent, in favor, according to unofficial returns from the county Board of Elections. Superintendent Ann Schloss acknowledged that property tax hikes likely played a role in the levy's defeat. "We haven't asked for new money in 15 years, and boy it really couldn't have been a worse time when you think about it, with the valuations and everything," she said Tuesday. "But, again, we haven't had it for 15 years and we need it with what's going on with funding." Schloss said the district would try again in November. Elyria Schools — along with Vermilion Schools, which saw a bond issue fail — was an outlier, however. Voters in Avon approved a 0.2 percent income tax hike to pay for police and fire services, although the city promised to stop collecting three property taxes if voters approved it. Voters in Columbia Township approved a replacement levy with an increase for their Fire Department and a replacement levy for the Columbia Branch Library. Both will increase property taxes. So, too, will a replacement levy with a decrease for the Wellington Community Fire District, which voters approved. The real surprise, though, came in Avon Lake, where voters appear to have approved two requests for new funding for Avon Lake Schools. One of those, a 1.97-mill operating levy that will generate $3 million annually, passed comfortably with 3,714 votes, or 53.2 percent, in favor and 3,270 votes, or 46.8 percent against. A 2.75-mill bond issue that will pay for renovation and construction barely passed. It received 3,497 votes, or 50.1 percent, in favor and 3,481 votes, or 49.9 percent, against. That places it within automatic recount range, although recounts rarely change the outcome. Nor would a recount be conducted until all the provisional and late-arriving absentee ballots are counted. Those votes will be reviewed and factored into the official count on May 20. Given the current 16-vote margin, those uncounted votes could swing the race. County Board of Elections Director Paul Adams told us that there were 37 provisional ballots and 71 outstanding absentee ballots in Avon Lake. In the past two years, Avon Lake Schools had tried twice before to pass a bond issue and once before to pass an operating levy. Voters rejected them all. The district's decision to pare back its requests this election likely played a role in getting more support. Unpopular cost-saving measures the district began implementing when voters turned down requests for new money in November also were likely a factor. Avon Lake voters were one of the main reasons that turnout exceeded expectations countywide. Adams had predicted turnout of around 8 percent across the county, while Jim Kramer, the elections board's deputy director, had predicted 10 percent. Countywide turnout ended up being a little more than 15.1 percent. Adams said precinct-by-precinct turnout breakdowns likely wouldn't be available until next week, but turnout in Avon Lake was high enough that extra workers were dispatched to every polling place in the city to handle the influx of voters. When it came to persuading voters to renew existing taxes, the expectation was guarded optimism that voters would do so. For example, Elyria voters renewed a 0.5 percent income tax, first approved in 2016, that has helped pay for city services including funding for the Police and Fire departments, parks and road work. The city made a strong case for keeping the tax, and it paid off. The result was 2,929 votes, or 62.3 percent, in favor of renewing the income tax and 1,774 votes, or 37.7 percent, against. When it comes to predicting elections, the conventional wisdom can be hit or miss.