County election officials anticipate flagging turnout in primary

SHEFFIELD TWP. — With the U.S. presidential election field all but finalized and a lack of state or countywide issues on the ballot, officials with the Lorain County Board of Elections expect a relatively low turnout today for the March primary election. Lorain County Board of Elections Director Paul Adams said that early voting numbers had outpaced 2020 and 2016, adding that 2016 was a much more apt comparison because the 2020 primary election's turnout was heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Adams said that as of Monday, 13,122 early ballots had been cast in Lorain County, while in 2016, only 12,950 people voted early. Eight years ago, the final turnout in the primary election was 43.64 percent. But, Adams said despite outpacing 2016 in early vote total, he expects this primary election to trail that total turnout significantly. "Even though these numbers are basically on par with the 2016 primary numbers for early voting, the difference is because of 2020," Adams said. "I think a lot of people in our county got used to voting early, whether that be in-person or through the mail, and they've continued to do that because they got comfortable with it. So even though we're looking at numbers that are on par with 2016, I don't see that playing out for this election." He said the increase in early voting means those votes before Election Day make up a much more substantial portion of the total vote than they did in 2016. The reason that the total turnout will be lower, Adams said, is because both the Republican and Democratic U.S. presidential nominations are largely "wrapped up," by former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, respectively. Ohio Republicans do have a substantial contested primary to consider: the race between Frank LaRose, Bernie Moreno and Matt Dolan to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Cleveland, for his U.S. Senate seat. Adams said that contest would drive Republican turnout, but not to the same extent as a contested presidential primary like the one between Trump and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich in 2016. "In this case, both major parties know who the (presidential) nominees are gonna be because they've clinched it," he said "On the Republican side you do have the Senate race, which I think will help push turnout in the county, but that by itself obviously is not as powerful as either one or both of the major parties not having a nominee clinch it for presidential race." Adams, a Democrat, predicted that the final turnout in Lorain County would stand at around 33 percent of the county's 220,316 registered voters. His Republican counterpart, Deputy Director James Kramer, guessed that 35 percent of registered Lorain County voters would head to the polls. In 2020, turnout in Lorain County was just 24.89 percent. Another misconception one could have from reading the early voting results is that more Democrats than Republicans will vote in the primary election. As of Monday, 7,260 primary early voting ballots had been submitted by Democrats, while only 5,557 Republican primary early voting ballots had been entered. This is despite the fact that Republicans have a contested U.S. Senate primary election and outnumber registered Democrats in the county by almost 8,000 voters. But the explanation is simple, Adams said. Those Republicans will vote today. Adams said that across Lorain County, Democrats are much more likely to vote early, while voters in southern Lorain County, who lean heavily Republican, prefer to vote in-person on Election Day. Adams said that in addition to national and statewide races, turnout is also heavily driven by local issues and especially those that include new or additional levies. But, this Election Day has no countywide issues and almost all of the ballot issue levies are renewals, with the exception of a 2.5-mill replacement levy for Rochester Village and a 1-mill replacement levy for the Lorain Port Authority. One city that does have numerous local issues on the ballot is Oberlin, which has a total of seven charter amendments up for a vote. Adams emphasized that Oberlin voters should visit the Board website to view a sample ballot before heading to the polls, so they are not reading all seven amendments for the first time in the voting booth. Also on the board website, residents can find their polling locations and live results as they come in Tuesday night. Only two polling locations in the county will change from the last election: both precincts of Amherst 4th Ward, 4A and 4B, moved from Marion L. Steele High School to GrowPoint Church, 780 Cooper Foster Park Road, and in Avon precincts 2A, 4A, 4B and 4C will vote at Wyndham Avon Hotel at 35600 Detroit Road. All polling places in the state will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. today, March 19. Contact Owen MacMillan at (440) 329-7123 or omacmillan@chroniclet.com.