As inflation cools, Lorain County stores cope with shifting prices

Guessing how grocery prices will plunge and skyrocket from week to week is impossible, said Fligner's Supermarket co-owner Ben Fligner. "Eggs are off the chart right now, but chicken is cheap again," he said. The cost of some staples — milk, pasta and beef, for example — seems to be stabilizing as 2023 gets underway. But Fligner said he thinks they'll fluctuate a lot in the coming months. Food prices across the nation are holding relatively steady, helping to tamp down inflation, according to new numbers released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in the middle of 2022, a spike not seen for 40 years. The government's year-end analysis shows it slowed in the final quarter to rest at 6.5 percent over the past 12 months. That's a good sign, but doesn't mean the nation's economic outlook is rose-colored. December's CPI numbers were still the second-highest since 1981. Anthony Gallo, president of the Lorain County Chamber of Commerce, said that despite big price hikes he believes most businesses have a positive outlook to start the year. "Is there a supply chain issue they're still dealing with? Yes," he said. "Will prices be more for what they're paying? Yes. Will they be charging more? Yes." Inflation probably won't pressure businesses across the county enough to cause a wave of closures, Gallo said. If anything, local retailers, restaurants and offices are looking to hire, he said. Even with record inflation, demand has increased instead of going away. Almost all small businesses have had to pass on price hikes to their customers, Main Street Amherst Director Teresa Gilles said. Yet people haven't stopped shopping or dining out, she said — they're willing to pay more to support locally owned stores and restaurants. "They see the value. When you go to a mom and pop shop, the customer service is better than going to a big box, or going online," Gilles said. "What kind of customer service do you get online?" The National Retail Federation has issued a few predictions for 2023. It believes shoppers are returning to brick-and-mortar locations, retailers will experiment with smaller stores and this year will bring less supply chain chaos. "Retail companies — all businesses, for that matter — continue to experience disruption," said Susan Reda, vice president of education strategy. "Geopolitical unrest is ongoing. And every executive is trying to get their arms around financial volatility." The National Restaurant Association noted that its industry added 26,300 jobs in December, continuing to rebound from the pandemic. But restaurants are still struggling to find staffing, down 450,000 jobs compared to pre-pandemic levels. That's the largest employment deficit among all U.S. industries, the association said. "Overall, 62 percent of operators say their restaurant does not have enough employees to support its existing customer demand," it said in a written statement. Bob Kritz, general manager of Oberlin IGA, said customers have changed their shopping habits, adjusting to a harsher economic climate. They're making menus and keeping purchases to just the items on their list, he said. They're not shopping as often, and they're buying in bulk. "The everyday shopper I used to have is coming out once a week now. … And they're trying to be very wise about buying things," Kritz said. Stocking shelves isn't always easy, he said. Many products simply aren't available anymore, or can only be ordered in limited quantities. Those that do arrive are often not boxed, but in bags due to material shortages and cost-cutting decisions, Kritz said. Fuel prices are the biggest issue, he feels. Higher delivery costs translate to markups at the checkout line. Gas prices are no longer hovering around $5 per gallon like they were in the fall. They certainly could be better. After dropping to $3.05 per gallon at many Lorain County stations, the average cost of gas across Northeast Ohio shot back up to $3.35 this week, according to AAA. A quick survey of local gas station signs Thursday showed prices at $3.15 at Snappy's Marathon in North Ridgeville, $3.29 at BP in Wellington, $3.35 at Sheetz in Amherst, $2.99 at Marathon in Lorain and $3.49 at Shell in Avon Lake. Business owners have reacted to new conditions by changing how they deliver services and products, Gallo said, using Camden Township-based Green Circle Growers as an example. It braced for a financial hit in the depths of the COVID-19 crisis, but discovered people still wanted lilies and other flowers. Gallo said the company found a way to provide direct delivery and keep money rolling in. "They saw a whole other side of business than they knew existed, or could exist," he said. Gilles also said many small businesses are reinventing themselves to survive. "I see them trying to figure out how to make it all work," she said. Coping with inflation has been much easier for multinational corporations like Walmart, said Fligner: "The big boys can withstand it. They just adjust their prices." He said his grocery store has committed to keep afloat without laying off employees or skimping on offers. At the same time, Fligner said it seems like the biggest competitors are using inflation as an excuse to gouge customers, widening their profit margins far more than is necessary. Jason Hawk can be reached at (440) 329-7122 or news@lcnewspapers.com.