Analysis: Lorain County's political winds are shifting

After decades as a staunch Democratic territory, Lorain County is continuing to slide to the right, midterm election results show. With 111,681 ballots cast — that's just over half of registered voters — the county helped deliver another term to Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. In the eyes of Lorain County Board of Elections Chair Marilyn Jacobcik, the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican JD Vance was the biggest of the fall, revealing shifting political winds. Ryan just barely won over a majority of Lorain County voters, though he lost the statewide vote. Combined with key wins for Republicans at every level, it may not be fair anymore to consider Lorain County a "blue" county. The numbers show it has become a deep purple. "It seemed like the momentum built the closer we got to Election Day," Jacobcik said Wednesday, analyzing voter trends. Historically, Democrats tend to vote early. Of those who cast ballots in-person or by mail prior to Election Day, 16,567 were Democrats compared with 10,354 Republicans, according to county Board of Elections Director Paul Adams, a Democrat. Residents unaffiliated with either party represented the largest group of early voters, however, at 19,889. Jacobcik, who is a Republican, said high-profile races and ballot issues drew a lot of independent voters "late in the game," and Republicans turned out in force on Election Day. Voters from both sides of the aisle were more involved in choosing Ohio Supreme Court justices this fall, too, she said. For the first time, judicial candidates across the state were identified with a D or an R next to their name on the ballot. Party politics aren't the only factor at work. To understand Lorain County's priorities, just follow the money: Turnout was highest in communities where big-dollar levy requests were on the ballot. With both a city income tax and a school construction levy on the ballot, North Ridgeville was extremely busy, Jacobcik said. The city's 3-H precinct had the highest turnout in the county, with 84.72 percent of registered voters making their opinions known. Avon, Avon Lake and Amherst precincts also saw large turnouts, many percentages climbing into the high 60s. But countywide turnout as of Wednesday sat at 50.9 percent, short of the 55 percent Adams had predicted, or the 57 percent Deputy Elections Director James Kramer believed would materialize. Some of that can be attributed to ultra-low engagement in some of Lorain County's traditional blue strongholds. Many areas of Elyria and Lorain saw turnouts ranging from 20 percent to 40 percent — Elyria's 5-A precinct dipped to 19.13 percent, and Lorain's 2-D precinct had just 14.84 percent of voters show up, the lowest in the county. Nor did Oberlin College students appear to get involved, with precincts around the left-leaning institution registering turnout in the 20s — although it's possible students chose to vote in their home states or counties. Jacobcik said cities along the border with Cuyahoga County are wielding increasing influence over Lorain County politics. Avon, Avon Lake and North Ridgeville have boomed in population, and their residents tend to lean to the right. Meanwhile, fewer new housing developments are going up in Lorain and Elyria, she said. The likely result is that candidates will spend more time campaigning to residents of high-growth areas. Adams said total turnout will inch upward before the election is certified in late November. That's because Board of Elections workers are still reviewing 2,389 provisional ballots, of which he expects 90 percent to count. There were an additional 2,874 outstanding mail-in absentee ballots that as of Wednesday had not been received by the Board of Elections. Those postmarked by Monday, Nov. 7, must be received by Thursday, Nov. 17, to be counted. Considering the higher turnout, Jacobcik said the election went remarkably well. "I think our people did a heroic job this year, and they are tired. But they always rise to the occasion," she said. In the coming year, the Board of Elections must update precinct maps and polling locations with newly drawn boundaries that reflect changes in the 2020 census, she said. Theoretically, those new maps should have been in play this fall, but redistricting and the special August primary caused delays. "We couldn't implement them because we went from election to election to election this year," Jacobcik said. Workers will also need to be trained on new electronic poll books that have been ordered, and will be used starting in 2023, she said. Jason Hawk can be reached at (440) 329-7122 or news@lcnewspapers.com.