Sudden leap to orange: Lorain County rockets to 'high' COVID spread rating

As one of just two Ohio counties where spread of the coronavirus is suddenly rated "high," Lorain County again has emerged as a hot spot for COVID-19. It rocketed from green "low" status straight to orange Thursday night on a tracking map used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Sixteen other Ohio counties were upgraded to "medium" yellow status, including Cuyahoga, Erie and Huron. Neighboring Medina and Ashland counties are among the 70 counties that still have low transmission rates. The new data shows there are now 229 cases for every 100,000 residents in Lorain County. That means there are 723 active cases here that state and federal agencies know about. There are actually many more asymptomatic people carrying the virus around, and still others who have tested positive but not reported their diagnoses, Lorain County Health Commissioner Mark Adams said. "This is extremely fast-spreading," he said Friday, after learning of the new CDC designation. "We knew it was fast-spreading. We knew there was going to be a surge again. There's still a pandemic going on." On Tuesday, Adams told an advisory group called the Lorain County Community Protection Team that there were 131 cases per 100,000 residents here. That number was based on CDC data from May 11 that as of his report had not been updated, he said. But now the case count is swinging upward fast. Ohio Department of Health numbers show the official count next week, based on its data this week, will put the case rate at 269 per 100,000 in Lorain County. As of Friday morning, new weekly cases across the nation were trending sharply upward, hitting a level not seen since February. The CDC recorded 144,840 cases. Cases aren't the only metric health experts are watching. Hospitalizations are also key. In Lorain County, there have been more than 30 new COVID-19 admissions, and 2.7 percent of staffed inpatient beds are now filled with those patients. That's not a tremendously high number, but the increase is enough to raise red flags for the CDC. After a conference call with local hospital leadership Friday morning, Adams said the uptick in admissions isn't putting undue stress on their ability to treat other patients. Overwhelmingly, those in the hospital and seeking intensive care are those who have never been vaccinated at all, he said. Adams said we are heading into the fifth week of what is expected to be a nine-week surge. That's based on how surges have played out locally over the past two years. Lorain County's current trend also mirrors closely what has happened in Michigan and New York, he said. Health officials are closely watching those states for signs of what is to come. They are also testing sewage samples in Elyria and Lorain to see how much of the virus is in circulation. It's loaded with as much COVID-19 as was seen in late December and early January, when the omicron variant hit the hardest, he said. Hospitalizations and deaths are not mounting up nearly as fast as they were then, however. While the United States has recently passed the 1 million mark for COVID-19 fatalities, Lorain County stands now at 983. The last here came about three weeks ago. Sewage tests also are revealing strange patterns that Adams said he can't explain: "One week it will go high and the next it will drop by 50 percent" to 60 percent, and repeat the cycle. The pattern doesn't match any other data. That differs from late 2021, when sewage samples were spot-on in predicting how cases and hospitalizations would rise and fall. The spring surge also doesn't square with the onset of warm weather, when people are naturally social distancing by being outside more often. Instead, Adams said the surge is more the product of subvariants that, while weaker and less harmful to humans, have learned to spread faster. There's also waning immunity to factor in. Protection offered by the original vaccines is slowly eroding, and many people have not gotten booster shots. Right now, the first round of boosters is open to most Americans, and recommended at least five months after getting the initial shots. The second round of boosters is reserved for people who are age 50 and older, and those who are moderately to severely immunocompromised. The CDC says people are of course free to mask up anytime, but said people with symptoms, positive tests or exposure should definitely do so. In counties where transmission is deemed high, residents are urged to wear masks while in indoor public spaces. Contact Jason Hawk at (440) 329-7122 or news@lcnewspapers.com.