Why did Gibbs decide to retire now?

Perhaps U.S. Rep. Bob Gibbs saw the writing on the MAGA hat. Gibbs, R-Lakeville, announced Wednesday that he would retire at the end of his current term, even though he had been seeking reelection as recently as Tuesday, when early voting began in Ohio. Although he didn't mention it in his announcement, Gibbs hadn't been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Instead, Trump has endorsed one of his former aides, Max Miller of Rocky River. (In fact, Trump came to the Lorain County Fairgrounds in June in part to tout Miller's candidacy.) Gibbs, who represents portions of Lorain County, instead blamed the "circus" surrounding congressional redistricting for his decision. He's not wrong in his description of redistricting. It has been a disaster, creating unnecessary confusion for voters, candidates and elections officials. Gibbs laid the blame for the chaos at the feet of the Ohio Supreme Court rather than where it belonged: the Republican-dominated Ohio General Assembly and Ohio Redistricting Commission. The General Assembly drew a map that overly favored GOP candidates despite an amendment to the Ohio Constitution that required a map reflecting the partisan breakdown of the state. The Supreme Court shot down the first version of the map and is now considering a second version drawn by the commission. Despite ongoing legal challenges, that map is being used in the May primary. Unfortunately for Gibbs, a hog farmer and former Ohio Farm Bureau president, his largely rural district was almost completely redrawn and now includes the western suburbs of Cleveland. It also no longer includes any of Lorain County. As he pointed out in his news release announcing his retirement, "almost 90 percent of the electorate is new and nearly two thirds is an area primarily from another district, foreign to any expectations or connection to the current Seventh District." Yet we can't help but wonder whether whom he was facing in the primary, rather than where he was running, convinced him to retire. Miller originally intended to run against U.S. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, R-Rocky River, because Gonzalez voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6 insurrection. Gonzalez decided against seeking another term following blowback from Republicans over his vote. Under the new congressional map, Gibbs and Miller ended up in the same district, and Miller decided to keep running. Trump's endorsement traveled with him to the new district. That was too bad for Gibbs, who has proved to be a loyal soldier for Trump. Gibbs voted in line with Trump's positions 95.1 percent of the time, according to the political website FiveThirtyEight.com. He twice voted against impeaching Trump and voted in favor of challenging the results of the 2020 presidential election even after the Capitol was stormed. His loyalty to Trump wasn't particularly helpful to him, though, in an altered race in which Trump already had made an endorsement. Gibbs did, however, get a few kind words from Trump after announcing his retirement. "I want to congratulate Congressman Bob Gibbs of Ohio on a wonderful and accomplished career," Trump wrote. "His retirement, after serving in Congress for more than a decade, should be celebrated by all. He was a strong ally to me and MAGA, voting to support my America First agenda and fighting strongly against the Radical Left. Thank you for your service, Bob — a job well done!" Miller still has to get through several other candidates in order to make the general election in a district that leans Republican. None of those other Republicans — Anthony Alexander, Charlie Gaddis and Jonah Schulz — has Miller's name recognition or enjoys the backing of a former president. The race could be further confused because Gibbs' name will remain on the ballot. Lorain County Board of Elections Director Paul Adams, a Democrat, told us that under state law it was too late to remove Gibbs' name. Adams also said the law requires that a disclaimer be added whenever a candidate withdraws late in the process, noting that votes cast for him won't be counted. We couldn't find any polling data on the race, but given Trump's popularity in Ohio — he won the state by more than 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020 — we suspect that going up against a Trump-backed candidate would have been a tough fight for Gibbs. Better to bow out now rather than risk getting blown out at the polls later.