Portman splits the difference

Rob Portman has spoken, but will his fellow Republicans listen? That was the question Wednesday after the retiring U.S. senator from Cincinnati announced his endorsement of former Ohio Republican Party Chairwoman Jane Timken to succeed him. While Portman's status as an elder statesman of Buckeye State politics should carry weight, his isn't considered the most important endorsement in the crowded Republican primary. Nor, for that matter, is the possibility of a state party endorsement. The nod everyone is waiting for would come from former President Donald Trump. Most of the candidates in the GOP field have been falling all over themselves to prove their devotion to him and at least pay lip service to his lies about the 2020 election being stolen from him. They've also been amassing endorsements from various figures in Trump world. For instance, Timken just won the support of former Trump aide Kellyanne Conway, who had supported Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno until he dropped out of the race this month following a private meeting with Trump. "We both agreed this race has too many Trump candidates and could cost the MAGA movement a conservative seat," Moreno said in explaining his decision. He went on to say he'd back whomever Trump endorsed. Who knows if the mercurial Trump will endorse anyone. He's famously averse to "losers" and might not want to settle on one candidate if there's a chance Ohio voters might pick someone else, thereby threatening his status as a GOP kingmaker. Portman, to his credit, didn't wait for Trump's leave to make a decision. "I believe Jane Timken is the best candidate to advance conservative Republican policies to help Ohio workers and families," he said. "Jane is smart and hard working, and understands the needs of Ohioans. I am confident in her ability to win both the primary and the general elections, ensuring that this Senate seat remains Republican with a 50-50 Senate, and so much at stake." That's a generous reading of Timken's political prospects. She's by no means leading the Republican pack. The frontrunner, at least according to a poll released earlier this month by the Trafalgar Group, a Republican outfit, is former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, with the support of 21 percent of likely GOP primary voters. He was followed by businessman Mike Gibbons with 16.4 percent. Author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance was in third with 14.3 percent. Behind him was state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, with 10.2 percent. Timken sat in fifth place with 9.8 percent, ahead of a bunch of other candidates — Bill Graham, Neil Patel and Mark Pukita — lumped into the "Others" category in the poll. Collectively, they had 3.3 percent. Portman's endorsement should breathe some new life into Timken's campaign, which, if nothing else, expected to bring in around $800,000 from donors who had been waiting to see what Portman would do. It also should help some of the 25 percent of likely GOP voters whom the Trafalgar poll described as undecided make up their minds. Timken could even peel off some of Dolan's supporters. He has been running alone in the traditional conservative lane of the primary and is the closest candidate to being cut from the Portman mold. Unfortunately for Dolan, being a steady and reliable conservative isn't enough in today's Republican Party. To win a primary, it helps to at least pretend to be at Trump's beck and call. Although she may have started out as a more conventional conservative, Timken has made the transition to full Trumper. Dolan has not. While he said he voted for Trump twice, he's been critical of the former president's election lies and the Jan. 6 insurrection. Not only that, Dolan's family owns the Cleveland Guardians and Trump was none too pleased with the decision to change the team's name last year. Dolan's best hope is that the Trump acolytes in the race split the MAGA votes among themselves, allowing him to slip through to the general election, where the winner is likely to face U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Niles. That path just got narrower. By endorsing Timken, the pragmatic Portman created a bridge between the Trump wing of his party and the old guard that could keep a more extreme candidate from winning the primary and imperiling the party's chances in November. If his fellow Republicans listen to him, that is.