Can Tim Ryan overcome Ohio's tilt toward Trump and the Republicans?

Tim Ryan might as well be running against Donald Trump. As yet he isn't running against anybody in particular. He's the only Democrat so far to enter the race for Rob Portman's seat in the U.S. Senate. Portman, a Republican from Cincinnati, has declined to seek a third term next year. When Ryan, a 10-term U.S. representative from the Mahoning Valley, entered the race Monday, four Republicans already were competing for their party's nomination, with more possibly in the wings. All four are hoping for former President Trump's endorsement. He won Ohio twice, in 2016 and 2020, by more than 8 percentage points, suggesting that the state's reputation as a bellwether in presidential politics has become a historical artifact. So eager are the GOP candidates for his blessing and so determined is he to retain his sway in the party that they participated in a sort of audition at a fundraiser in late March at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Fla., according to Politico. During cocktails before dinner, a Trump aide signaled the four, Josh Mandel, former Ohio treasurer, Jane Timken, former chairwoman of the state GOP, Mike Gibbons, an investment banker, and Bernie Moreno, a technology company executive, that Trump wanted to meet with them in a session that Politico likened to an episode of Trump's old reality TV show, "The Apprentice." "Mandel said he was 'crushing' Timken in polling," Politico reported March 25. "Timken touted her support on the ground thanks to her time as state party chair. Gibbons mentioned how he'd helped Trump's campaign financially. Moreno noted that his daughter had worked on Trump's 2020 campaign." Trump hasn't chosen a favorite, but if and when he does, the winner is sure to crow about it. In a sense Trump already has squeezed Ryan. Last year he won Trumbull and Mahoning counties, the first time since 1972 that a Republican presidential candidate had won both. Ryan's 13th Congressional District includes parts of both, and his victory margin in 2020 was only a little more than one-third as large as it had been in 2018. Further, the district might well be a target of Republicans, who control the General Assembly, when districts are redrawn for the 2022 election to reflect Ohio's loss of a seat in the House. In short, Ryan appears to have decided that the time has come for him to abandon his House seat. In the past he has made overtures toward higher office but either declined to run or dropped out early, as was the case with his abbreviated run for the presidency in 2019. Within hours of his entering the Senate race Timken attacked him as "a rubber stamp for the radical left and Pelosi's guy in Ohio." Given that he's the only man among Democrats from Ohio in the House and that Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is the party's leader there, Timken's "Pelosi's guy in Ohio" jab was at least technically correct, but it ignored his unsuccessful run against her for minority leader in 2016. Beyond that, Ryan hardly has a radical background. In fact, Govtrack.us, an independent organization that follows Congress, rated him on its ideological scorecard for the last session of Congress as the least politically left of Ohio's four Democrats then in the House. (Marcia Fudge of the 11th District has since been appointed U.S. secretary of housing and urban development.) In announcing his campaign, though, Ryan promised "to fight like hell in the U.S. Senate to cut workers in on the deal." He described other countries as investing heavily "in infrastructure, education, health care and their workforce to outcompete American businesses and workers. Our workers need a game plan to level the playing field and bring jobs home to Ohio." He launched a Workers First Tour to hear concerns from workers across the state and later in the week listed endorsements from unions and sitting and former public and party officials, including U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Toledo, state Rep. Joe Miller, D-Amherst, former Lorain County Commissioner Sharon Sweda, Lorain Auditor Karen Shawver, Lorain Councilman Cory Shawver, D-7th Ward, and county Democratic Party Chairman Anthony Giardini. Ohio already has a Democratic U.S. senator, of course. He's Sherrod Brown of Cleveland, and his "dignity of work" mantra has helped him remain in office despite Trump's success in the state. Brown won a third term in 2018. Whether Ryan can duplicate his success will depend on at least three things: • How his workers-first approach resonates with voters. • How much support he and Democratic President Joe Biden can generate with their calls for more expansive government to allow this nation to outcompete others. • Whether Trump retains his popularity in Ohio and whether whatever acolyte of his wins the GOP Senate nomination benefits from it. Eighteen months remain before the general election of 2022, making predictions perilous, but my sense is that Ryan's greatest challenge is to avoid getting Trumped. Andy Young is editor emeritus of The Chronicle-Telegram. Contact him at (440) 329-7111 or ayoung@chroniclet.com.