Curfew remains necessary

Thursday is too soon for Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine to ease a curfew he imposed to slow the coronavirus. Yet that's exactly what DeWine predicted he would do when he unveiled, during a news conference Tuesday, his metrics for relaxing the curfew. We say this not because we are convinced that the curfew in and of itself has cut transmission rates in Ohio. After all, cases skyrocketed in December despite the curfew, which DeWine enacted in November. What it has done, however, is help convey to the public just how serious the crisis is. By relaxing the curfew DeWine would send the message that the danger is easing, but that's not the case. As it stands now, the curfew runs from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. The start time would be pushed back to 11 p.m. if the state went seven straight days with hospitalizations below 3,500. Hospitalizations have been trending downward in recent days. As of Tuesday, the state had 2,924 people hospitalized with COVID-19. The record was set Dec. 15 when 5,308 people were hospitalized. It's a trend we hope continues. However, as DeWine noted, numbers are relative. Hospitalizations and new cases are still far above what they were over the summer. For instance, on July 22, the day DeWine finally imposed a statewide mask mandate, the state reported 1,527 new cases On Tuesday, the state reported 4,262 new cases. That was down from the days when Ohio was exceeding 8,000 cases per day, but the rolling 21-day average of cases was still 6,567. The number of deaths has continued to climb steadily as well, with 10,856 Ohioans having died since the start of the pandemic. Moreover, not enough Ohioans have been vaccinated to even approach herd immunity. As of Tuesday only 5.62 percent of the state's population had received the first dose of a vaccine. In Lorain County, 5.45 percent of the population has gotten the first shot. As those numbers increase, the number of people who could be infected and transmit the virus will decline, but the limited supply of vaccines means the decline will be slow. Despite that, DeWine offered a path to elimination of the curfew. Let's assume he follows through Thursday on his prediction and shortens the curfew by an hour. If after two weeks hospitalizations fell below 3,000 for seven days in a row, the curfew would be pushed to midnight for another two weeks. After that, if hospitalizations fell below 2,500 a week, DeWine said he would end the curfew. That's still more than three times the number of hospitalizations in a typical flu season, Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, chief medical officer for the Ohio Department of Health, said. If the number of hospitalizations begins to rise again, DeWine acknowledged, he would have to restrengthen the curfew. Unfortunately, he tied easing the curfew to hospitalizations rather than new cases. The problem is that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator. Patients who fall ill from the coronavirus usually aren't rushed immediately to the hospital. It can be days or more than a week before their symptoms become serious enough to require hospitalization. In other words, by the time hospitalizations begin increasing, it could be too late to contain a surge. All of this is especially risky because more contagious variants of the virus have cropped up around the world, including in Ohio. Vanderhoff has warned that more contagious versions tend to become the dominant ones in circulation. If that happens, it could trigger a rise in infections, hospitalizations and deaths, which could be made worse if restrictions are eased and people let down their guard. DeWine's desire to pull back on the curfew is understandable. He's trying to balance protecting the public with preventing even more economic harm to businesses such as bars and restaurants. Yet he announced last week that the curfew would be extended. Painful as the curfew and other restrictions on business have been, they are necessary. The economy won't make a full recovery until the coronavirus is under control. That's why passing another economic relief bill in Washington is so crucial. DeWine would serve Ohioans better in the long run by maintaining the 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew or at least tying it to the number of new cases rather than hospitalizations.