Where has COVID hit hardest? New numbers show cases by community

At first glance, Lorain County's COVID-19 hot spots are right where you'd think they'd be. The tally since March has been largest in Lorain, which has seen a total of 545 cases. Elyria isn't far behind with 451, according to new data released Friday by county health officials. But raw numbers don't tell the real story, Health Commissioner David Covell said. Taking population into account, positive tests have been incredibly consistent from community to community, he said. Whether in large cities, suburbs or farm country, the percent of residents who contract the virus has been more or less the same. There are some outliers. Take North Ridgeville, which pound for pound has seen the most trouble. The city of about 34,000 has dealt with 371 coronavirus cases and 36 deaths in the past eight months. It's not out of the danger zone — in the past couple of weeks, North Ridgeville has had 36 new cases. "I'm always going to be worried when cases are increasing," Mayor Kevin Corcoran said Tuesday. "I think that's a concern that's been rising over these last few weeks as I've watched the numbers go up." He said North Ridgeville's numbers since the beginning of the pandemic are skewed by two major factors. The first is that a large number of front-line health care workers live in the city and have been exposed to the virus. The second is an outbreak among nursing home residents over the summer, specifically at O'Neill Healthcare. Avon and Avon Lake have had similar issues with long-term care centers. By contrast, Oberlin has not seen major outbreaks, with just 24 total cases. There have been none at all at Welcome Nursing Home or Kendal at Oberlin assisted-living facilities. "We have gratitude that we've been fortunate enough to keep COVID out of Kendal," said CEO Barbara Thomas, talking about the extreme steps taken to isolate residents from the virus. The entire property was walled off from the world for months via a manned gate. Now residents are starting to venture out again. Kendal also just started weekly testing for about half its staff that have direct contact with residents, and its dining area is stacked with boxes of masks, gloves and sanitizer to keep the community protected. Neither has Oberlin College been an epicenter for viral spread. While other colleges and universities across Ohio and the United States have struggled and backslid, there have been 19 cases on Oberlin's campus since August, including students and employees. A team of 16 contact tracers works with county health officials to contain community spread. The village of Grafton is another anomaly. Health department data shows 77 cases there — 61 among prison inmates and just 16 among village residents. Other factors are much harder to pin down: Does the number of apartment buildings in a city lead to a higher case count? Does poverty? Politics? See the recent spread cases from Oct. 10-23 by community in Lorain County.pdf ED BETZEL / CHRONICLE Covell said it's impossible to tell how a city's political leanings affect the spread of the virus. Contact tracers don't ask whether patients are Democrat or Republican, he said — but there are towns where masks are used more than others. What's much easier to see, Covell said, is how families spread COVID-19 around. Family gatherings, mostly small but sometimes growing quite large, are still the biggest "spreader" events in Lorain County, he said. That trend was particularly visible among the Hispanic population in August, when about 25 percent of cases were tied to quinceaneras and other parties, many in Lorain. "There were people coming in from other states, and even from Puerto Rico," Covell said. Lorain Mayor Jack Bradley also talked about the role of small family events in spreading COVID-19. He takes to Facebook every Friday to discourage gatherings and remind residents to wear masks, social distance and wash hands frequently. "It's important to note that we had the first case in Lorain County at Lorain City Hall, one of our police officers," he said. That forced the city to take the pandemic seriously from the start. The numbers shine new light on where the virus has been in the past eight months. Lorain County Public Health has refused to release case counts by ZIP code. Only recently has it made numbers available by community, posting them every two weeks for areas with more than 20 total cases. But Covell said Tuesday that where cases have been is a good indicator of where they'll continue to pop up over the coming months. He also urged caution as the holidays approach, warning against holiday parties and asking for Thanksgiving meals to move outside, stay small, space out and have fewer hugs. Jason Hawk at (440) 329-7122 or news@lcnewspapers.com.