Indians, Astros face common problem: The impending loss of their best player

What do the Indians and the Houston Astros not have in common? That's easy. The Astros are in the World Series and the Indians are not. What do the two teams have in common? That's easy, too. The Astros will soon lose their best player to free agency, and so will the Indians. There are just degrees of "soon". "Soon" for the Astros means after the World Series, when probable Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole becomes a free agent and signs a bajillion-dollar contract. "Soon" for the Indians means whenever they decide that "soon" is now. It could be this offseason. It could be at the trade deadline next year. Or it could be the following offseason, or the 2021 trade deadline. If it's none of those, "soon" will be following the 2021 season, when Francisco Lindor will leave as a free agent, just as Cole will leave the Astros as a free agent sometime this winter. The same could also be said of Washington Nationals third baseman, and MVP candidate Anthony Rendon. He's a free agent after the World Series, too, meaning he, like Cole, will be playing with another team next year. And by "another team" we, of course, mean "the highest bidder." Naturally, whenever the term "highest bidder" is thrown around, the Yankees aren't far behind. The reason the Yankees aren't in the World Series this year is that their starting rotation wasn't good enough. Cole is the best starting pitcher in baseball this year. So do the math. Two plus two equals Cole signs with the Yankees. That's unless Cole signs with the Angels, whose fabulously wealthy owner, Arte Moreno, has already publicly declared what no Indians owner, in the history of Indians owners, has ever publicly declared: "The payroll will go up next year." There's also the not insignificant fact that the Angels desperately need starting pitching, and Cole grew up an infield fly from Angels Stadium. So whether it's the Yankees or the Angels, Cole seems destined to leave the Astros as a free agent, even if Houston rallies to win the World Series. Why? Because that's what free agents do. Especially the biggest ticket free agents. They leave. Last year Bryce Harper left the Nationals and Manny Machado left the Orioles. This year Cole and Rendon, the two biggest free agents, will almost certainly leave the Astros and Nationals respectively. So it's no surprise that speculation has already started in New York that the Yankees will sign Cole, and try to trade for Lindor. They could also just wait two years and outbid everyone when Lindor becomes a free agent. But the Yankees are traditionally not good waiters when it comes to the pursuance of superstars. Lindor is on the clock in Cleveland. The Indians know it. The Yankees know it. All of baseball knows it. Indians officials have to play it down the middle, however. They would never publicly acknowledge the team has no chance of retaining him beyond the 2021 season. Lindor likes money. So does his agent, and so, especially, does the Players Association, who prefer that the game's biggest stars sign the biggest contracts possible, under the rising-tide-lifts-all-boats principle. That's the most ominous issue of all for the Indians. The Yankees can always afford to be the highest bidder. So can the Angels, and a handful of other big market teams. The Indians can't. But one thing the Indians do have in common with big market teams is that the biggest stars ALWAYS leave as free agents. The difference is that the other teams can always sign another big-ticket free agent. The Indians can't. However, what holds true for all teams is that when you have a game-changing superstar, you better go all out to win while you have him, because the clock on him leaving never stops ticking. Analytics say that a team should trade an unretainable star in order to get maximum value from his exit. The alternative is to keep the player until the day he leaves, hoping you can win a championship before that day arrives. The Indians did that with Michael Brantley. Will they do it with Lindor? "We've had plenty of players who played out the entire term of their contract here," Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. "A lot of that has to do with what's going on with that individual player, outside of our team. How competitive we are, what's in front of us, what our alternatives are. A big part of it is how competitive is our team, and what role that player plays in the competitiveness of our team. We're fully expecting to be a good team next year, and we have every expectation that Frankie will be a huge part of that." That sounds admirable, if not practical — unless the Indians can win it all before Lindor leaves. If not, it's regrettable Contact Jim Ingraham at 329-7135 or jingraham4@gmail.com.